Last week, the Rathe Times went quiet as I turned my attention toward Minneapolis. With only one opportunity to qualify for Nationals, I'd missed my shot and was now focused on The Calling, where I intended to prove that Sandscour Greatbow was a legitimate alternative to Death Dealer. After overcoming a Kano (who found two Blazing Aethers on turn 2 that left me at 9 life) and an Enigma, I stumbled into the subculture of fatigue and lost my next 3 matches to Riptide, Nuu, and Victor. It wasn't the glorious proof of concept I'd hoped for, but I found consolation on Sunday when I encountered other Sandscour Azalea players, one of whom made Day 2 of Nationals. Don't let your memes be dreams, folks!
I put my commitment to the cause on full display with these Sandscour Azalea card sleeves I made ahead of the Calling.
One reason I was so convinced it was Sandscour Azalea's time to shine was the Mistveil roster. All 3 heroes felt like balanced-to-favorable matchups, and with early enthusiasm toward them across the community, I figured I was well positioned. What I failed to account for was the scope of Riptide adaptation, as well as the slower-than-expected Victor dropoff. You can encounter anyone in the early rounds of a FAB tournament, but out of 531 players in the Calling, 32 were on Victor and 24 on Riptide - making them only about 1/3 as popular as Zen! I would have gladly faced Zen all day if it meant I'd dodged Rippy entirely!
Of course, all eyes are on Nationals, where the best players in the game show what they're capable of doing with these heroes. But I want to talk about these Calling numbers, because to me they reflect more closely what the average FAB player is thinking, and considering the choices here in light of the results make for interesting comparisons. Also, there's no sealed component, which can skew the success metrics.
Zen is the obvious favorite, and this choice paid off with a 19% conversion rate into Day 2. With similar play rates and successes in the other directly comparable events (US Nationals and Battle Hardened), Zen has proven himself a meta-reshaping force, and the onus is now on the rest of the meta to find effective ways to counter him. Development of a deck will always lead counterplay to that deck, and so long as players found a competent build early on, this is an expected outcome for a well-designed hero; we are only 2 weeks into Part the Mistveil, after all.
Nuu was also extremely popular out of the gate, with 74 Calling competitors taking her on. But with only 7 making Day 2, that puts her at a dismal 9% conversion rate... which, honestly, we probably should have expected, given her primary build at the moment is based around 1s. Nuu appears to be a ratios deck, and those numbers will take time to sort out; in the meantime, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the hype around this hero retract as players re-evaluate whether they really want to play the multi-pronged gameplan of thousand-cut damage, minor fatigue, and matchup-dependent combo that Nuu requires. Once again, Assassins are so very cool and so. very. fickle.
Azalea has never been more feared, but Ranger players know that inconsistency and a few awful matchups still plague the Ace in the Hole (just ask Brodie Spurlock). A 7% Day 2 conversion rate perfectly illustrates out plight - though I speculate that she's have fared better if her Death Dealer aggro gameplan hadn't simply gotten out-matched by an influx of Zens. I'd like to put a final nail in the coffin of "Azalea's broken!" after this event; the class design of Ranger simply doesn't allow it to hold the meta uncontested.
I think by now most players have learned to never count an Illusionist out. While Enigma is far from refined, the 21% conversion rate of the Calling's 43 Enigma players is a testament to rapidly-developed skills, and I expect we're only seeing glimpses of her final form. Thankfully, Ward has abundantly more counterplay than spectra - just remember to prioritize attacking vs. defending when ward auras are involved!
23% of Kayos converted to Day 2, enough to make him the second-most successful hero of the Calling's Day 1 alongside Enigma. Numbers-driven gameplay will always have the advantage of consistency in FAB, but I think that Mistveil has slowed his high-speed roll through the ranks toward Living Legend.
Mind the N, because it's Kano you actually want to watch. Requiring a level of mastery that few possess, Kano generally signals that the player you're about to face is experienced and dedicated to their deck - and that's reflected in the 25% Day 2 conversion rate. There's never been a better time to hone your arcane counterplay, with Kano succeeding in the meta and Rosetta just a few months away.
Prism also managed a 23% conversion rate, again driven by dedicated players who know what they're doing. These numbers may have been helped by less devoted Prism players switching over to Enigma, which in turn might explain the better-than-expected results seen for the newest Illusionist.
The other three heroes with 20+ players behind them were Victor, Levia, and Riptide... and, well, these seem to have been the wrong horses to back. Riptide converted at 13% which, honestly, isn't awful, but with his low representation that only amounted to 3 Day 2s. 1 of 32 Victors made Day 2, and Levia missed Sunday altogether. What went wrong here? I think Riptide was answering a previous meta, and found the influx of Zens hard to defend against; Guardians were generally seen as poorly positioned in the Mistveil meta, and while Victor was seen as the best of them, that didn't amount to very good; and despite having the highest ceiling among Brutes, Levia still lacks the consistency that these major events require. When you come at the meta from the side, sometimes you don't find a lane.
But across all three major Minneapolis events, the forces shaping the meta are pretty consistent: Zen, Azalea, Kayo, Kano, and Enigma dictate the terms of competitive engagement, with some input from Prism and possibly Nuu. This 5-pointed meta asks you to meet challenges on all sides, and answer questions posed by vastly different strategies.
- Zen: I can go wider than the limits of your hand will allow you to defend. How do you gain value while sustaining your life total? Can you disrupt my go again and damage modifiers?
- Azalea: I can ruin your plans and constrict your decisions. Have you planned for tall defenses in a single card? Or will you simply weather the disruption I present?
- Kayo: You can't really pressure me, I only need a little bit of room to out-value your gameplan - and if you let me control the tempo, my turns go twice as hard as yours. How do you steal my momentum?
- Kano: It's not even about momentum, it's about opportunity. Have you learned to read me yet? Do you see the game as I do? Does your discipline match mine? Or will you be caught going for broke when my opportunity arises?
- Enigma: My defense is my strength, are you pressuring me enough? Do you recognize the true threats, or have I fooled you into throwing away the tools you need to overwhelm me?
Success will be found in answering each of these. Those decks that can meet the challenges will find avenues to victory; those that stumble against a single one of them will need luck on their side to make a run for the top.
Is This the Right Meta for the Moment?
Heavy Hitters gave us a meta defined by value, and during that era Kayo lived pretty unassailably at the top - which isn't to say he won everything, but rather that he was a safe bet to win any given event, and when he didn't it was usually because he was effectively challenged along the way. In its final weeks, the Heavy Hitters meta began to shift toward those heroes who could answer value in their own way: Azalea by disrupting the play patterns, Prism by reaching an endgame loop, and Kano by exploiting the all-in nature of value-to-the-max gameplay.
The fact that Part the Mistveil has already managed to add 2 new heroes to the upper echelon is exciting, and shows that there was plenty of room at the top for other strategies. But ultimately, neither Zen nor Enigma is doing something entirely new. Zen is the latest go-wide hero in a long tradition (Chane, Fai, and to a lesser extend Briar and Lexi have all championed this gameplay), and the incorporation of combo gameplay leaves open a window for disruption of his proven play pattern. Enigma brings back boardstate in a big way, but allows opponents to respond to it across their chosen axis.
Part the Mistveil has already managed to add 2 new heroes to the upper echelon, showing that there was plenty of room at the top for other strategies.
I would caution against reading too much into Zen's early success. He had the element of surprise - but now that he's made his major debut, players will start to tech against him in earnest, and I see plenty of ways they can trip him up. I'd also encourage giving the existing heroes another look any time the top decks shift. You never know when conditions will suddenly favor a previously neglected hero - just look at Riptide's new lease on life!
This wide meta makes it hard for a deck to prepare for everything, but also possible for any deck to find paths forward - especially in the primary environment of your local Armory, where meta calls can be more precisely tuned. In short, it promotes well-rounded development against a dominant field, instead of precise targeting of the meta tyrant; and it allows for ebbs and flows as heroes get answered, players pivot in response, and the scales tilt in favor of a fresh strategic tack.
