It's of no surprise to many in the community that the fabled cards of Flesh & Blood (the rarest) are also the most coveted and valuable, despite their debatable in-game potential. As a result, we have been trying to figure out how many there are, and how rare they are - since day 1, however - we may not have been too accurate (though we certainly gave it a shot).
Today, LSS let us know exactly how big the print run was for WTR Alpha. According to them, there have been exactly 400,000 booster packs. Based on this new nugget of knowledge, we can update our presumptions about hearts and what it may mean.
Before I go further, I want to highlight the information we do know, before speculating further. Many in the community appear to be ignoring these facts altogether, leaning into a purely speculative position, which does no one any good. So what do we actually know?
We know, based on musings from James White, that Alpha hearts are at least twice as rare as Alpha MTG Black Lotuses. We also know, that there were 1100 alpha black lotuses printed. This means that we're looking at a maximum of 550 Heart of Fyendals.
Did you know?
Legend Story Studios (LSS) launched the now much-beloved Flesh & Blood TCG in October of 2019, before the global pandemic struck. Despite seriously challenging conditions, the game has gone from strength to strength, boasting approximately 200,000 players world-wide.
So with that knowledge in hand, how can we update our previous assumptions to get us closer to the truth? (Until such time as LSS give us actual figures!). Let's take a look.
400,000 booster packs, with 24 packs per box, nets us approximately 16,667 boxes (an odd number, to be sure!)
If we're looking at 550 hearts as part of the total print run, that means that 16,667 / 550 = 30.3 boxes, or about 31 boxes, rounding up. So 1 heart every 31 boxes. Considering our original estimates as a community is 1 in 40, that wasn't far off!
Now obviously, this is part-factual, part-speculation, and not in any way conclusive. It still makes a number of assumptions. However, it does provide a better opportunity for valuing these cards, as it is very likely they are more common than we originally thought (albeit, marginally so!)
What do you think? What has LSS latest update done for you in regards to your views of the Fabled rarity?
Kirk is the sole developer of both FaB DB and The Rathe Times, proving an obsession with the game of Flesh & Blood and supporting its communities. Additionally, he loves writing articles, the game, and the general hobby of collecting cards.
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